Home » You’ll never guess which QB has the biggest NFL betting edge for Week 14

You’ll never guess which QB has the biggest NFL betting edge for Week 14

NFL Week 14 is upon us, and the buzz is all about edges — not just the ones players have on the field, but the betting edges that can make all the difference to those placing wagers. Dimers.com has applied their advanced analytics to this week’s matchups, revealing ten bets with significant edges, including a surprise at #1.

Top 10 betting edges for NFL Week 14

Data analysts have crunched the numbers, providing a valuable glimpse into the potential outcomes of the NFL’s Week 14 games. Here are the top ten betting edges, complete with the probability and betting odds:

Week 14′s biggest betting edge

Derek Carr under 1.5 rushing attempts, DraftKings +124

The biggest edge of NFL Week 14 belongs to Derek Carr, and for a fairly obscure market. The embattled New Orleans QB needs to record fewer than 1.5 rushing attempts when the New Orleans Saints take on the Carolina Panthers this Sunday at 1:00 PM E.T.

“Our model gives Carr a 74.2% chance to stay under 1.5 rushing attempts against Carolina,” explained Dimers data analyst Greg Butyn. “Current DraftKings odds are +124, which implies a probability of 44.6%. That means this is a huge edge, and a great value.”

Top 10 Week 14 betting edges

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) dives into New York Jets cornerback D.J. Reed (4) during the second quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 3, 2023, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)AP

Note: Clicking the “Take this bet with…” buttons below will direct you to the online sportsbook offering the listed NFL odds. For new users, the buttons will also activate the applicable sportsbook’s welcome bonus for NFL Week 14. Odds are correct at time of publication and subject to change.

  1. Derek Carr Under 1.5 Rushing Attempts: Probability 74.2%, Edge 29.6%, Odds +124
    1. Take this bet with DraftKings
  2. Khalil Herbert Over 21.5 Rushing Yards: Probability 81.5%, Edge 29.2%, Odds -110
    1. Take this bet with DraftKings
  3. Jamaal Williams Under 22.5 Rushing Yards: Probability 79.1%, Edge 26.0%, Odds -113
    1. Take this bet with FanDuel
  4. Bijan Robinson Over 69.5 Rushing Yards: Probability 78.4%, Edge 24.9%, Odds -115
    1. Take this bet with DraftKings
  5. Dameon Pierce Under 10.5 Rushing Attempts: Probability 71.4%, Edge 24.7%, Odds +114
    1. Take this bet with DraftKings
  6. Jerome Ford Under 2.5 Receptions: Probability 77.6%, Edge 24.6%, Odds -113
    1. Take this bet with FanDuel
  7. Zack Moss Under 2.5 Receptions: Probability 73.2%, Edge 23.2%, Odds +100
    1. Take this bet with DraftKings
  8. Bijan Robinson Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts: Probability 76.3%, Edge 23.0%, Odds -114
    1. Take this bet with FanDuel
  9. Joe Mixon Under 3.5 Receptions: Probability 78.0%, Edge 23.0%, Odds -125
    1. Take this bet with FanDuel
  10. Keaton Mitchell Under 46.5 Rushing Yards: Probability 75.9%, Edge 22.4%, Odds +115
    1. Take this bet with DraftKings

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Understanding Dimers’ Predictions and Betting Edges

Dimers’ NFL predictions are the result of thousands of game simulations, running through complex algorithms that factor in countless variables from player stats to historical performance. When Dimers identifies a betting edge, it means their model predicts a greater chance of a particular outcome than the odds suggest, providing a potential advantage for bettors.

How to Use This Information

To leverage these insights, consider the following:

  • Use the probabilities and edges to guide your betting choices.
  • Remember, odds can change, so it’s important to check them before placing bets.
  • Diversify your bets to manage risk.


With Dimers’ analytics, bettors are armed with data that can turn guesses into educated decisions. While betting involves risk, being informed can tilt the odds in your favor.

Don’t miss a beat of NFL Week 14 — head to Dimers.com for detailed analytics and real-time updates to inform your bets throughout the games, or visit FanDuel and DraftKings to take NFL Week 14′s best bets.

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