Despite Los Angeles’ latest winning streak, weather impact in Baltimore will heavily favor the home team when Lamar Jackson & Co. play host to Matthew Stafford and L.A. in windy and rainy conditions. Read more in our Rams vs. Ravens betting picks.
The Los Angeles Rams are suddenly one of the hottest teams in NFL odds, and they will now bring a three-game winning streak to the East Coast where the Baltimore Ravens and some nasty December weather look to cool L.A. off.
Baltimore is coming off a much-needed bye week and could get an assist from Mother Nature when it comes to a home-field edge. Sunday’s forecast calls for strong winds and rains blowing around M&T Stadium.
Rams vs Ravens odds
Rams vs Ravens predictions
One of my first bets of Week 14 was laying the touchdown spread with the Baltimore Ravens. While the market has ticked up to -7.5, there are still some -7 spreads available for a home team owning a huge edge. And that’s before you even run down the matchups.
The red-hot Los Angeles Rams are in a potential letdown spot following their best showing of the season, blowing out the Browns 36-19 last weekend. Now, Los Angeles must cross the country for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff — 10 a.m. PT back in California.
From there, the pending weather in the DMV gives the Ravens a huge advantage, considering the Rams are an indoor team that relies on pushing the ball downfield.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford is among the top gunslingers in completed air yards, but those longer throws will get pushed around by the strong gusts in M&T Stadium on Sunday. For his career, Stafford has seen a downtick in production and accuracy when playing outdoors.
Also impacted by the wind and rain will be Los Angeles’ special teams, which have been a huge part of its success. The Rams are tied for the most field goal attempts in the NFL (making only 72.7%) and standout punter Ethan Evans has helped out the defense with his boot, pinning opponents back with poor starting field position.
Oh, and they play the Ravens.
Baltimore isn’t just one of the NFL’s elite and the best two-way team in the AFC, but this roster is the healthiest it’s been in a long time after coming off the bye. The Ravens have been plagued with injuries on both sides of the ball all year but should have the bulk of their starters in action in Week 14.
With the total taking a near five-point nosedive, the game script says this one could be a sloppy grinder on Sunday afternoon. That seems to fit the Baltimore attack much better, considering this is the best-rushing offense in the NFL by a mile.
Los Angeles may be able to keep this one close for a while, but eventually, the elements and the Ravens’ relentless runs will break this game wide open.
My best bet: Ravens -7 (-117 at BetRivers)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Rams vs Ravens same-game parlay
Lamar Jackson Over 47.5 rushing yards
Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 interceptions
Baltimore Ravens moneyline
Lamar Jackson could be the ultimate weapon in this bad-weather game. He can tuck and run as good as anyone, and his player projections call for 50-plus rushing yards, with a ceiling close to 70.
Meanwhile, Stafford has thrown an interception in 89% of his outdoor starts and will be not only playing in strong winds and rains but facing a Ravens secondary that has 11 INTs and is the healthiest it’s been all season.
Wild weather could skew some things, and while I feel confident Baltimore can cover the -7, most books have a half-point hook on this spread now. Keep it simple and add Baltimore to win outright to cap off the SGP.
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Rams vs Ravens spread and Over/Under analysis
The Ravens opened as 7-point home favorites after getting a needed breather on the bye last week.
That spread has since jumped up off the key number and many books are dealing Baltimore -7.5. Covers Consensus currently shows split opinion on this NFC versus AFC affair, with picks split down the middle 50/50 as of Thursday afternoon.
Los Angeles is playing its best football of the season, riding a three-game win streak into Sunday. The Rams have outscored those opponents by a combined tally of 90-49 and rank inside the Top 10 in both EPA per play and EPA allowed per play since Week 11.
Baltimore has only one loss in its last seven outings, with that lone defeat coming on a late-game collapse to rival Cleveland back in Week 10. The Ravens have been one of the better two-way teams in the league all season, boasting the top Total DVOA rating in the AFC. That overall strength has led to an 8-4 record against the spread for the Ravens, including a 4-2 ATS count at home.
The Over/Under total for Sunday opened as high as 44.5 points but has since sunk to 40.5, with the forecast playing a large role in that adjustment.
With high winds and rain plaguing play, longer passing plays and any kicking will be impacted by gusts getting up to 45 mph. Despite this movement, 61% of Covers Consensus picks are siding with the Over.
Rams vs Ravens betting trend to know
The Ravens are 10-2 ATS on the first-half spread this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Rams vs. Ravens.
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Rams vs Ravens game info
|M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore, MD
|Sunday, December 10, 2023
|1:00 p.m. ET
|Ravens -7.5, 44.5
Rams vs Ravens latest injuries
Rams vs Ravens weather
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