The Miami Open featured some spectacular tennis this past weekend and now it’s time for the round of 16 to begin!
I’ve found value on two of Monday’s matchups, featuring Ostapenko vs Trevisan and Zheng vs Potapova.
Read on for my Miami Open picks for March 27.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Miami Open Odds, Picks
Jelena Ostapenko (-600) vs Martina Trevisan (+410)
11:05 a.m. ET
Jelena Ostapenko took down Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 to advance in Miami. Despite winning just 44% of her second-serve points and hitting 10 double faults, Ostapenko won 69% off her first serves. The Latvian was broken on four occasions.
On return, Ostapenko won 48% of her return points. This allowed her to break Haddad Maia’s lefty serve six times.
Ostapenko has a strong 12-7 hard-court record in 2023. For her career, Ostapenko is 189-137 on hard. She goes after her groundstrokes, dictating play with massive shots from the baseline into small targets. Ostapenko rushes and completely overwhelms her opponents with pace.
But, the Latvian’s serve can sit up in the box and she can sometimes lose her rally tolerance.
Martina Trevisan came back from a set deficit to defeat Claire Liu 4-6, 7-5, 6-4. Trevisan won 58% of her service points, but had to face 18 break points, getting broken five times. However, Trevisan won 44% of her return points, including 41% on her first-serve return, breaking the American’s serve on six occasions.
Trevisan improved her mark on hard courts this season to 5-8. As a professional, Trevisan is now 52-60 on the surface. When she’s playing well, the Italian controls the baseline with her lefty forehand and has excellent fitness.
With that said, her backhand is a liability and opponents with power can rush Trevisan from both wings. Her serves also sit up in the box, waiting to be crushed.
Ostapenko is the much better player and it will show here. The Latvian’s power from the baseline is something that Trevisan will not be able to match.
On hard courts, Trevisan’s defensive skills are not quite good enough to absorb Ostapenko’s pace. Look for Ostapenko to rush Trevisan’s groundstrokes and for the Latvian to have no problem teeing off on Trevisan’s serve and forehand, both of which can sit up in the court.
When looking at Elo ratings, Ostapenko’s overall Elo is 199.9 points higher than Trevisan’s and her hard-court Elo is 237.3 points above the Italian’s.
Pick: Under 19.5 games (-115 via PointsBet)
Qinwen Zheng (-144) vs Anastasia Potapova (+118)
12:30 p.m. ET
Qinwen Zheng won a topsy-turvy match against Liudmila Samsonova 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-3 to advance to the round of 16 in Miami. Despite winning just 47% of her second-serve returns and hitting nine double faults, Zheng won 70% over her first serves.
While Samsonova won 77% of her first serves, Zheng did win 55% of her second-serve returns and broke serve three times.
Zheng is now 11-5 in 2023 on hard courts and has an impressive 94-43 career-record on the surface. She has a big first serve and can overpower her opposition from the baseline. This is particularly the case from Zheng’s forehand wing. But, Zheng’s rally tolerance can sometimes be an issue.
Anastasia Potapova upset Coco Gauff 6-7(10), 7-5, 6-2 in the third round. Potapova won 61% of her service points, getting broken three times. On return, the Russian won 45% of her return points, including 59% on Gauff’s second serve.
Potapova improved her hard-court record to a strong 14-7 for the year. The Russian has a solid 111-82 career-record on hard courts. Potapova has a lot of firepower, especially from her forehand wing. But, she has had stretches throughout her matches where she completely lost her consistency and allows her opponents off the hook.
Both players hit with power, but Zheng consistently hits a big ball from the baseline compared to Potapova. Zheng can also do so with better precision than the Russian.
She also doesn’t have a weakness as exploitable as Gauff’s forehand. Potapova won’t be getting nearly as many short balls and will be in defensive positions far more often.
Finally, when looking at Elo ratings, Zheng’s overall Elo is 93.2 points higher than Potapova’s and her hard-court Elo is 105.2 points above the Russian’s.
Pick: Zheng ML (-144 via FanDuel)
How would you rate this article?
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.