While these two defenses are atrocious at defending the pass, these offenses may not have the chance to take advantage given the weather expected to come on Sunday. We break down the matchup and more in our Lions vs. Bears betting picks.
The Detroit Lions head to Soldier Field to face off against the Chicago Bears in NFL Week 14 odds on Sunday. The 9-3 Lions will look to build on their three-game lead atop the NFC North while the Bears are at the bottom of the division at 4-8.
NFL odds for this divisional showdown have seen plenty of movement with the Over/Under opening at 45.5 before plummeting to 40.5 and then ticking back up to 43.5. Should you consider the volatile total or find another angle? I let you know with my best free NFL picks for Lions vs. Bears on Sunday, December 10.
Lions vs Bears odds
Lions vs Bears predictions
NFL weather reports on Tuesday projected messy weather for this contest with temperatures approaching zero, a chance of precipitation, and most importantly, high winds. With that in mind I was leaning towards the Under on the game total earlier in the week. However, those weather reports eased up by Thursday and the wind might not be quite as debilitating as previously thought.
I’ll stay away from considering the total until closer to kickoff. However, there is a play that should hit regardless of wind, and that’s the Over on rushing yards for Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields.
Fields rushed for 104 yards on 18 carries when the Bears faced the Detroit Lions at Ford Field three weeks ago. He also shredded the Lions on the ground in both meetings last year, rushing for 147 yards in Week 10 before piling up 132 yards in Week 17.
Entering this season, Detroit was expected to have one of the worst defenses in the league. However, they exceeded expectations at the start of the year in large part due to facing some anemic offenses.
Through the first six weeks of the year they were seventh in defensive EPA and fifth in defensive rush success rate. But regression has hit, and since Week 7 they’ve been 29th in defensive EPA and 24th in defensive rush success rate.
This is a Lions stop unit that has struggled for years against mobile quarterbacks, and Fields is one of the best running QBs in NFL history. They could be even worse against the run moving forward since they lost their best run-stopping lineman Alim McNeil to a knee injury last week. Take the Over 60.5 on Fields’ rushing yards total for Sunday.
My best bet: Justin Fields Over 60.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Lions vs Bears same-game parlay
While Detroit has been having a tough time covering the spread lately, this is still a 9-3 squad that has been the cream of the crop in the division. While the Lions have been poor on defense they haven’t been quite as bad as the Bears, who rank 27th in defensive dropback EPA, and they’ve been far more balanced and efficient on offense. Being able to buy a point on the spread for this parlay let’s you get them under that key number of 3.
Detroit’s defense has struggled but Brian Branch has been a bright spot. The rookie defensive back has logged at least six total tackles in six of his last eight games. One of those contests during that span where he went below this total was back in Week 7, when he was coming off an injury and was on the field for just 50% of defensive snaps. He’s logged close to 100% of defensive snaps over his last five games.
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Lions vs Bears spread and Over/Under analysis
Due to the projected weather, the total plunged from its opening number of 45.5 to 40.5 by Tuesday. With the weather reports by Thursday projecting less wind (averages of 13 mph with gusts of 20 mph), the total crept back up to 43.5. The spread also saw line movement with the Lions slimming from 4.5-point road favorites to -3 before ticking back up to -3.5.
The Lions are coming off a 33-28 win against the Saints where they covered as 3.5-point road favorites. They have gone 4-0 O/U in their last four games, with the Over cashing by an average of 14.5 points during those contests.
The Bears are fresh off a 12-10 win against the Vikings where they prevailed despite going 0-2 in the red zone and a pair of costly fumbles from Fields. Despite a poor record, low expectations from oddsmakers have helped them go 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games.
Lions vs Bears betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in Chicago’s last five games while going 3-2 in the previous five meetings between these rivals. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Bears.
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Lions vs Bears game info
|Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
|Sunday, December 10, 2023
|1:00 p.m. ET
|Bears +4.5, 45.5
Lions vs Bears latest injuries
Lions vs Bears weather
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