Home » Eagles vs Cowboys Odds, Prediction: NFL Sunday Night Football Preview

Eagles vs Cowboys Odds, Prediction: NFL Sunday Night Football Preview

The latest Eagles vs Cowboys odds for Sunday Night Football have Dallas installed as a 3.5-point favorite on the spread with a game total over/under of 51.5 at most sportsbooks.

The Cowboys will take the field at Jerry World looking for revenge after the Eagles beat them 28-23 in Philadelphia in Week 9. Dallas certainly has momentum on its side, entering Week 14 on a four-game winning streak. Another Dallas victory would create a first-place tie between these teams atop the NFC East standings.

Will things play out differently this time around? Find out in my Sunday Night Football preview, which includes my Eagles vs Cowboys prediction.

Eagles vs Cowboys Odds: Sunday Night Football

Sunday, Dec. 10

8:20 p.m. ET

NBC

Eagles Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

+3.5

-120

51.5

-110o / -110u

+165

Cowboys Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

-3.5

+100

51.5

-110o / -110u

-185

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Eagles vs Cowboys Prediction

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Eagles vs. Cowboys

Matchup Analysis

The Mike McCarthy redemption arc is real.

After going an NFL-worst 5-11 ATS in his first season with Dallas (2021), the Cowboys are tied for an NFL-best ATS mark of 31-15 since. The Cowboys are tied with the Lions for that distinction, but they’re hardly equal: Detroit has a +1.2 average ATS differential over that span; Dallas has an average ATS margin of 5.2.

McCarthy, who missed a couple of days this week with appendicitis but returned on Friday, has made great adjustments since Dallas’ Week 7 bye, opening up the offense and being more aggressive on early downs. That’s led to the offense averaging 39.0 points and 431.0 yards in six games since the bye, compared to 25.7 points and 329.8 yards in the six games prior.

Of course, the Cowboys’ lowest point total since the bye came in that Week 9 loss to the Eagles, but that was misleading as Dallas outgained Philadelphia 406-292.

The Eagles’ pass defense has struggled this season with Sean Desai taking over at defensive coordinator for Jonathan Gannon. Philly’s dropped from first in DVOA last year to 24th this season, per FTN Fantasy.

At first it seemed like injuries were the main culprit, but the unit has failed to improve despite getting healthier. A big reason is a drop-off in play from cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry.

Slay’s PFF grade dropped from 73.1 (21st of 118 qualified corners) last year to 65.0 (73rd of 106) this year. Bradberry went from a grade of 71.7 (27th) last year to 61.5 (76th) this year.


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The Eagles haven’t played as well as their record (10-2) indicates. Their +41 point differential works out to 6.9 Pythagorean wins, suggesting the Eagles are closer to 7-5 than 10-2.

The drop-off in pass defense has been the main culprit, but the pass offense isn’t without its share of the blame. Perhaps due to losing offensive coordinator Shane Steichen or a nagging knee injury for Jalen Hurts, the pass offense hasn’t been as crisp this season.

Hurts’ decision-making is a beat slower, evidenced by his average time to throw jumping from 2.86 seconds last season to 3.23 seconds this season. Additionally, his yards per attempt has dropped from 8.0 to 7.4.

According to PFF, Hurts’ completion percentage this season drops from 73.7% in a clean pocket to 53.2% when pressured, which is an issue against a ferocious Cowboys pass rush led by Micah Parsons. Per PFF, the Cowboys generated pressure on Hurts on 43.8% of his dropbacks in the first meeting.

Nick Sirianni said he wants to get the running game going, but that is easier said that done against a Cowboys rush defense that ranks ninth in DVOA and held the Eagles to just 109 yards on 33 carries (3.3 yards per carry) in the first meeting.

One luck-based factor that may continue to work in the Eagles’ favor is officiating. The head referee for this game is John Hussey, who has seen the Eagles go 7-0 ATS, covering by 12.3 points per game, in games he has officiated (including the postseason), per our Action Labs data.

Eagles vs. Cowboys

Betting Picks & Predictions

The Cowboys are 16-7 (70%) ATS at home since 2021, covering by 8.1 points per game over that span.

The Cowboys are on a 14-game winning streak at home, a span in which they’ve gone 11-3 (79%) ATS and won by four or more points in 13 straight.

Since Parsons was drafted in 2021, the Cowboys are 11-2 ATS when coming off an ATS loss in the prior week, covering by an absurd 12.4 points per game. The Hussey factor is a bit worrisome, but the play is still Cowboys or nothing.

Given that the Eagles are likely to get more favorable calls, I prefer buying the -3 up to -125, if possible, rather than taking the -3.5. The line has been moving toward the Eagles as of Saturday night, so it may be worth waiting until closer to kickoff to try and get the best number.

Pick: Cowboys -3 (-120 | bet to -125; DraftKings)

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