The Indianapolis Colts (5-5) are coming out of their bye week hungry to make a playoff push and will be hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 12.
Having won their last two games before going into the bye, the Colts were able to get the job done in games they were expected to win. Now, they take on a Buccaneers team that has lost five of its last six games since coming out of their bye.
Here are the opening odds for the Week 12 matchup, courtesy of BetMGM:
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+2.5
|New England Patriots (2-7)||-2.5
Though the Bucs have been struggling to enter the win column for the better part of the last two months, they’ve had some competitive games. Three of those losses came by six points or fewer. They also haven’t won a road game since Week 4.
According to Vegas Insider, the Colts are currently 6-4 against the spread this season while 66.7% of their games have hit the over. Conversely, the Buccaneers are 7-3 against the spread but with only 20% of their games hitting the over.
In terms of DVOA, these two teams match up pretty similarly. The Colts have a slight edge in total DVOA, ranking 17th to the Bucs’ 19th. They also rank four spots better in offensive DVOA (17th to Bucs’ 21st) while the Bucs rank 12th in defensive DVOA, which is one spot better than Indy.
Where the Bucs have struggled most offensively is in the red zone, where they rank 28th in the NFL. They also are dead last in rushing yards per game (76.9) and yards per attempt (3.1). Conversely, they own the best red-zone defense in the NFL but are allowing the third-worst conversion rate on third downs.
This should be a close matchup between two teams that both have bright spots and glaring issues on both sides of the ball, and it likely comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes.
To open the week, though, the Colts are the betting favorites.
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