This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for NFL Week 14
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What shaped up as a marquee matchup before the season started has perhaps lost just a sliver of luster thanks to the struggles of both teams, but any time Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes get together, the potential for fireworks is always there.
The Bills come in off a much-needed Week 13 bye and desperate for a win after dropping three of their last four games, the most recent a trademark Sean McDermott-era heartbreaker of a 37-34 overtime loss to the Eagles that dropped Buffalo to 6-6.
The Chiefs have had a somewhat rocky title-defense season and have lost two of their last three in their own right, dropping KC to 8-4 and leaving them just two games ahead of the feisty Broncos for the AFC West lead.
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Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds for NFL Week 14
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Bills +100 (BetMGM Sportsbook)/ Chiefs -115 (PointsBet Sportsbook)
Point spread: Bills +1.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Chiefs -1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Totals: Over 48.5 points (BetMGM Sportsbook)/ Under 49 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Chiefs were unsurprisingly favorites in this game right out of the gate when the line was first released back in the summer, but their projected advantage has shrunk over time. A line that was originally Chiefs -3.5 has been progressively narrowing, flipping all the way to Chiefs +1 at one point late in the week on DraftKings Sportsbook. While that has since come back over to -1, there are some sportsbooks who list this game as a Pick ‘Em as of Saturday morning.
The total has had its fair share of volatility as well, with offensive expectations for both teams somewhat reduced, especially with the Chiefs’ passing game struggling without sufficient reliable depth at receiver. The number opened at 51.5 points back in June, but it sunk as low as 47 earlier in the week before bumping back up to as high as 49 at some sportsbooks as of Saturday morning.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Picks This Week
The Bills’ uneven season is one of the most confounding in either conference this season. Buffalo has been blessed with good health in terms of the majority of its key players, especially on offense. Young, explosive pieces like James Cook, Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir have made good use of their opportunities, while the likes of Allen, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis have made their usual stellar contributions.
However, Buffalo has gone just 1-4 on the road, with each of those defeats coming by six points or fewer, and two of them coming to division rivals that particularly know how to defend Allen well. The good news for Allen and the Bills this week is that the Chiefs, talented as they are on defense, don’t fall into the category of “Allen kryptonite.”
The Bills’ star quarterback has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his last two regular-season meetings with Kansas City while posting a 6:0 TD:INT. Both of those games have notably taken place at Arrowhead Stadium, where Allen’s only career loss is the infamous 42-36 overtime loss in the 2021 AFC Divisional Round Game, one in which Allen threw for 329 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for 68 yards.
Clearly, the Bills’ gunslinger won’t lack for confidence coming into the venue, and he’ll have the added edges of a big rest advantage and superior offense overall. While most teams naturally can’t make that claim when measuring up against Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Co., the Bills do have a deeper all-around cast on that side of the ball, especially when considering Isiah Pacheco will miss the game for Kansas City due to a shoulder injury.
The Chiefs appear to have a true No. 1 receiver in the making in rookie Rashee Rice, but as is the case with almost any first-year player, there’s still plenty more development in his future. Meanwhile, Kelce has typically been well contained by Buffalo throughout his career, putting together a rather ordinary 28-357-4 line on 40 targets in six regular-season encounters.
Finally, there’s the matter of the Chiefs actually being fairly beatable at home in the Mahomes era. KC has dropped two games there this season and has taken 12 regular-season losses there overall since Mahomes moved into a starting role in 2018. Two of those defeats came at the hands of the Bills, and I’m of the belief a third one happens this Sunday thanks to a more rested and explosive visiting team.
Bills at Chiefs Best Bets: Bills moneyline (+100 on BetMGM)
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
Bills 27, Chiefs 24
This amounts to one of the most difficult games to predict all season, as these two teams retain plenty of firepower and have an intense rivalry. Nevertheless, intangibles aside, I’m simply relying on some good old-fashioned hard facts to make my pick – the Bills are the more rested team, have a slightly deeper offensive arsenal, particularly on the pass-catching front, and KC is far from invincible on its home field, strange as that is on the surface. Factoring in Buffalo is also the more desperate team and endured some off-field controversy this week that could certainly motivate them to circle the wagons further, and I like them in a very close hard-fought game in line with recent history between the teams.