Two AFC West rivals look to make a late playoff push as the Los Angeles Chargers host the Denver Broncos, and we offer our best Broncos vs. Chargers NFL player props for Week 14 based on the best NFL odds.
The Denver Broncos (6-6) had a five-game winning streak snapped with last week’s 22-17 loss to the Houston Texans. It was Russell Wilson’s seventh career game with three or more interceptions and his second since joining the Broncos.
The Los Angeles Chargers (5-7) scored their fewest points (six) in a win in franchise history when it shut out the New England Patriots on the road last week. The victory snapped a three-game losing streak, and the Chargers are looking for their fourth straight head-to-head win at home against Denver.
Broncos vs. Chargers NFL player props: Week 14
Justin Herbert Under 257.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Justin Herbert has seven games with 20 or more fantasy points, third-most among quarterbacks this season. However, he is coming off an eight-point performance in Week 13 that ranked him outside the top 20. Herbert has been trending downward before that, with fewer than 5.0 yards per pass attempt in two of the last five games, after doing that twice in 57 prior starts.
Against the Broncos blitz in Week 13, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud completed just 55% of his pass attempts for 57 yards. Against the blitz since Week 9, Herbert has completed 58% of his passes, which ranks 21st among quarterbacks. We were tempted to take the Under on Herbert’s passing touchdowns, considering Denver has allowed seven passing touchdowns in the last eight games after allowing 13 over the first four.
However, we find better value with the Under for his passing yards, despite the steeper -114 price, as FanDuel’s total is slightly higher than the O/U of 256.5 found at our other best sports betting apps.
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Keenan Allen Under 84.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Keenan Allen has been a monster this season, as his 102 receptions put him within range of Michael Thomas’ NFL record of 149 catches in a single season. In addition, Allen’s 1,175 receiving yards rank third in the league, and weekly volume is not an issue, as he has 71 more catches than the Chargers’ next leading player (Austin Ekeler) and 76 more than the next receiver (Quentin Johnston). Thus, expect the Broncos to use shutdown cornerback Patrick Surtain a lot in shadow coverage against Allen.
In Surtain’s career, Herbert has thrown his way 17 times, and Surtain has allowed seven receptions for 59 yards with six combined pass breakups and interceptions. And Denver’s defense has done an excellent job of making adjustments recently, even mid-game, as it limited Stroud to just 120 passing yards over the final three quarters after surrendering 154 yards through the air over the opening 15 minutes.
In addition, Allen is coming off a five-catch, 58-yard performance against New England (both the receptions and receiving yards were his third-worst this season), so the quad injury that had him questionable to suit up last week may be hampering him.
We are only making this a three-star play as Allen will likely be used a lot in the slot, where he should not draw coverage from Surtain often. Our go-to shop is bet365, the only one of our best sports betting sites charging less than -114 odds to back the Under.
Wil Lutz Over 6.5 kicking points (+105 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Broncos kicker Wil Lutz has made 25 of his 27 field goal attempts (92.6%) this season, so we know he can be counted on delivering three points on most attempts. He has six or more kicking points in five of the previous six games, and because of Denver’s perpetual issues with scoring touchdowns in the red zone, he has a great chance to score at least six points again this week.
Per Sharp Football Analysis, the Broncos have scored a touchdown on less than half (48.6%) of their red-zone possessions, which ranks 24th in the league. However, we expect Denver to move the ball successfully, as Los Angeles ranks in the bottom six of the league in yards per drive allowed (32.3).
DraftKings had Lutz’s O/U set at 5.5 earlier in the week (-140 to back the Over), but we are still firing away at this slightly higher total as a three-star play as we are enticed by the plus-money odds.
Broncos vs. Chargers player props made 12/7/2023 at 6:31 a.m. ET
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