Saturday, October 12, 2024

Between Putin and Trump? Defending EUrope | ISPI

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With the European elections right around the corner, the next five-year cycle will play a pivotal role in shaping the EU’s posture in defence policy. Also, the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 has raised concerns in many European countries, which fear a possible US disengagement from NATO and EU security. Even more so given that today NATO still represents the only credible ‘deterrent of last resort’ against what is now clearly a more aggressive and threatening Russia. The EU, meanwhile, is still largely unprepared to assume a substantial role in the defense of Europe, despite recent increases in military spending and tangible support for Ukraine across the continent.
How can NATO and the EU better exploit their respective strengths and align their efforts in the defense of ‘EUrope’? Which reforms are necessary on both sides to generate ‘strategic synergies’? What are the available policy options for Europe if Trump is re-elected?

In Brief
What’s at Stake
– What May Happen
– Where We Stand
– What the EU Does – and What Not

BOX 1 – The European ‘Pillar’ of the Alliance
BOX 2 – NATO, the EU and ‘Cybrid’ Threats

Exploring Options
– A Pillar and a Bridge
– The Added Value of the Union

BOX 3 – Defending an Ever-wider EUrope

Our Take

Annex – Relevant Treaty Provision

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