This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Monday’s Miami Open play includes the entire women’s singles fourth round, as well as the remainder of the men’s singles third round. A couple of top-10 seeds on the men’s side may be miscast as heavy favorites in their matches Monday against opponents who have pulled off some big wins lately, while two of the top performers on the WTA Tour over the past two months will look to build on their recent success. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, as well as specific bonuses for users located in Massachusetts, where online sports betting recently went live.
All matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players’ previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Picks: Upset Alert
Cristian Garin (+330) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas is in the third round here without having played a match, as he got a bye followed by a walkover against Richard Gasquet (ankle). Due to those circumstances, the health of Tsitsipas’ shoulder remains a mystery. The last time we saw him, Tsitsipas was hampered by the injury at Indian Wells and lost his first match there to Jordan Thompson. He’ll face a confident opponent in Garin, as the Chilean is 9-1 in his last 10 matches between Indian Wells and Miami, including qualifying. Eight of those wins came in straight sets, including Garin’s victory over Casper Ruud two weeks ago.
Adrian Mannarino (+310) vs. Hubert Hurkacz
Mannarino’s a wily veteran that has racked up some quality wins lately. He beat Dominic Thiem and Lorenzo Musetti in Miami before falling to Jannik Sinner, then added wins over talented youngsters Juncheng Shang and Ben Shelton en route to the third round here. Meanwhile, Hurkacz is lucky to still be in this tournament, as he survived five match points in a 6-7 (10), 7-6 (7), 7-6 (6) thriller against Thanasi Kokkinakis in his last match. Hurkacz won this title in 2021, but he was nowhere near that championship level against Kokkinakis, and Mannarino has proven capable of upsetting the ninth-ranked Pole on a big stage, as he eliminated Hurkacz in straight sets at the 2022 Australian Open.
Sorana Cirstea (+230) vs. Marketa Vondrousova
Miami Open Odds: Lock It In
Felix Auger-Aliassime (-475) vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Even when Auger-Aliassime was far from his best early in the season, he was still good enough to take care of business against Cerundolo. The sixth-ranked Canadian took out Cerundolo at both the Australian Open and Indian Wells, winning five of six sets between those two hard court matches. The 31st-ranked Argentine will have a hard time reversing their recent history considering Cerundolo prefers clay and has a career 13-17 record on hard courts.
Elena Rybakina (-425) vs. Elise Mertens
Rybakina has been far from her best here, but she continues to survive and advance. The Indian Wells champion escaped 6-3 in the third set against both Anna Kalinskaya and Paula Badosa in her first two matches at this tournament, stretching her winning streak to 10 matches for which she has taken the court. She’ll likely require less drama to add to that streak in what looks like a relatively comfortable Round of 16 draw. Rybakina has won two of three previous meetings against Mertens, including both on hard courts. They last faced off in 2021, but that fact actually bodes well for Rybakina, as the 2022 Wimbledon champion has improved substantially in the last two years while Mertens has regressed, falling to No. 39 after spending the bulk of 2018-2022 in the top 20.
Jessica Pegula (-475) vs. Magda Linette
Miami Open Predictions: Value Bets
Karen Khachanov (-145) vs. Jiri Lehecka
Khachanov is the far more accomplished player between these two, having made the semifinals of each of the last two Grand Slams, both on hard courts. Lehecka’s an ascendant 21-year-old who made his first Grand Slam quarterfinal down under, but there’s still a sizable gap between the 16th-ranked Russian and the 44th-ranked Czech heading into their first career meeting. With the Miami heat beating down on them, look for the supremely fit Khachanov to grind Lehecka down with long, physical rallies.
Anastasia Potapova (+115) vs. Qinwen Zheng
These are two potential rising stars on the WTA Tour, but Potapova seems to have recently taken the next step in her development. The 21-year-old Russian is coming off a signature 6-7 (8), 7-5, 6-2 win over Coco Gauff, in which Potapova showed impressive determination after letting numerous opportunities slip away in the opening set. That win was preceded by a 6-1, 6-3 drubbing of Marta Kostyuk, and Potapova’s quietly gone 9-2 in her last nine matches, with both losses coming 7-5 in the third set. While the 20-year-old Zheng’s ranked three spots ahead of Potapova at No. 23, Potapova’s recent rise has her on pace to break into the top 20 imminently. Zheng was sidelined by an abdominal injury for a month prior to this tournament and hasn’t quite found her A-game, having to battle back from a set down in both of her matches here.
Christopher Eubanks (+100) vs. Gregoire Barrere