This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Miami Open continues Saturday, as the women begin their third round while the men wrap up second-round play. The men’s seeds taking the court Saturday will be doing so for the first time following first-round byes, while all the women remaining in the draw have already played at least one match on the hard courts of Miami. One of the biggest names on the ATP Tour is on upset alert, while a former champion at this tournament is poised to add to his Miami Open success. A former Grand Slam champion in the women’s draw should add to her favorable head-to-head history against her opponent, while another Grand Slam champion is looking to beat the same player for the second time in as many tournaments. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, as well as specific bonuses for users located in Massachusetts, where online sports betting recently went live.
All matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players’ previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Picks: Upset Alert
Richard Gasquet (+380) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas was open about doubting his chances at Indian Wells earlier this month since he’s nursing a shoulder injury, and we should have believed him. The world No. 3 was obviously pegged as the heavy favorite in his first Indian Wells match against 87th-ranked Jordan Thompson, but Tsitsipas fell in a third-set tiebreak. If he’s fully fit and confident, Tsitsipas shouldn’t have too much trouble with the 36-year-old Gasquet, but the Frenchman’s experience should allow him to pick up on any lingering physical or mental doubts in Tsitsipas’ game. Given Gasquet’s long odds and the questions about Tsitisipas’ form, the world No. 40 is worth a look here.
Anastasia Potapova (+195) vs. Coco Gauff
Gauff should ultimately find a way to get through this one on her home turf, but the Delray Beach native will likely be pushed to the limit by the locked-in Potapova. The 26th-ranked Russian gave Jessica Pegula all she can handle in the Indian Wells third round before falling 7-5 in the third, then began her Miami Open with a 6-1, 6-3 second-round win over talented 20-year-old Marta Kostyuk. All four of Gauff’s losses this year have come against top-20 opponents, but she also has only two wins over players ranked in the top 40. Both players have won a hard-court title this year, with Gauff posting an overall record of 15-4 and Potapova sitting at 13-7, so this projects to be one of the higher-quality third-round matches at this tournament.
Christopher Eubanks (+185) vs. Borna Coric
Miami Open Odds: Lock It In
Hubert Hurkacz (-310) vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
Hurkacz has produced some of his best tennis here over the years. The 2021 champion is 12-2 in his career at the Miami Open, and he had a 10-match winning streak at this venue stopped by Carlos Alcaraz last year. He shouldn’t have much trouble with Kokkinakis, who actually lost to 170th-ranked Benoit Paire in qualifying here, got into the main draw as a lucky loser, and had to escape in a third-set tiebreak against 135th-ranked Zizou Bergs. If guys well outside the top 100 are giving the 94th-ranked Kokkinakis so much trouble, he’s unlikely to keep pace with the ninth-ranked Hurkacz on one of the Pole’s favorite courts.
Elena Rybakina (-320) vs. Paula Badosa
These two just faced off at Indian Wells, which has been one of Badosa’s best tournaments over the years, and Rybakina came through 6-3, 7-5 in the third round of what ultimately turned out to be a title run. Their overall head-to-head is still 4-2 in Badosa’s favor, but Rybakina is just starting to reach her peak at age 23 while Badosa has plummeted to No. 29 after climbing as high as No. 2 in the world less than a year ago. Rybakina was pushed to 6-3 in the third in her first match here against childhood friend Anna Kalinskaya, but Badosa was hardly more impressive in a 7-6 (2), 4-6, 6-2 first-round win over 114th-ranked Laura Siegemund. As long as Rybakina’s healthy — she was stretching out her shoulder a few times against Kalinskaya but still served up 14 aces — she should take care of business against Badosa just like she did earlier this month.
Frances Tiafoe (-425) vs. Yosuke Watanuki
Miami Open Predictions: Value Bets
Lorenzo Sonego (-165) vs. Daniel Evans
Evans is quietly off to a dreadful start in 2023. He’s 3-8 overall, has lost five consecutive matches, and his only top-90 win came 6-3 in the third set on hard courts against clay-court specialist Albert Ramos-Vinolas back in early January. While Evans is still ranked 30 spots ahead of Sonego at No. 29, it wouldn’t be surprising to see those rankings flip-flopped in a couple months. Sonego spent 20 consecutive months in the top 40 until mid-2022, and he could be on his way back up there, having beaten Felix Auger-Aliassime within the past month.
Jelena Ostapenko (-165) vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia
Ostapenko has won all three previous encounters with Haddad Maia, most recently beating her 6-4, 6-4 last August. All three victories came on hard courts, and Ostapenko has dropped just one set in those three encounters. Ostapenko reached the quarterfinals at the Australian Open, beating Gauff along the way before losing to Rybakina. Since then, she’s 4-3 overall but 4-1 against players ranked outside the top 10. Haddad Maia is ranked eight spots ahead of Ostapenko at No. 14, but if you take only points from 2023, those rankings flip, with Ostapenko sitting 14th in the race and Haddad Maia at 25th. The latter metric is a more accurate assessment of their ability on hard courts, as Haddad Maia’s ranking is inflated by a pair of grass court titles in 2022.
Martina Trevisan (+135) vs. Claire Liu